This could come back to bite me in the ass but I’m going to make a prediction for 2009 that online display advertising and all that other junk like pop-ups fails big time this year.
Why Fail?
1) No one pays any attention to online display advertising. 2) There’s too much of it floating around. CPM’s are dropping 20% quarter over quarter according to Pubmatic data (PDF). 3) The economy stinks. Businesses will cut back on advertising and realize there is little to no change in their business sales because of it.
How Will Businesses Connect?
The internet and improved search technology have created a situation where it is no longer necessary for businesses to advertise products and services to attract customers. All that is now needed is a business website. Desire more exposure? List your business on Google Maps, Yahoo Local, Yelp, Yellow Pages, your local chamber of commerce website, and other such places. Desire even more exposure? Offer up “advertising” as free content to anyone who will listen via press releases, interviews, newsletters, a blog, and of course social networking sites like Facebook, Vimeo, Twitter, etc.
Who Will Suffer?
Anyone who relies on online advertising for their main revenue stream. General interest television shows and news sites come to mind as do most blogs. For a site like NYT.com to require 1.3 billion pageviews to become viable is just unsustainable. Also failing will be businesses who spend money on un-targeted online display advertising. Those companies will see money go out the door, never to return again.
Who Will Succeed?
Businesses that shift their primary revenue stream away from simple display advertising towards 1) Sponsorships 2) Partnerships 3) unconventional ad systems like The Deck 4) businesses that embrace marketing as advertising like this
What Else?
Don’t give up on offline advertising like Good Customer Service, Coupons, Billboards, Radio, direct mail, and town shoppers. When used right, those mediums have a higher ROI than most other forms of advertising.
Update: January 8, 2009
Traditional Advertising Fail! Burger King & Facebook Win!
Update: January 16, 2009
Is Advertising Dead? Or is There a Huge Opportunity for Interesting, Innovative, and Entertaining Ads to Emerge? -from 26thstory.com
Related posts:
- Internet Advertising Revenues in Q3 ’08 Increase – Except Newspapers
- VistaPrint Revenues Will Exceed New York Times Advertising Revenue in 2011
- Forget Newspapers, All Advertising Reliant Businesses Are Hurting
- Hyperlocal Disaster – East Iowa Herald Closes After One Year
- Free Advertising Ideas For Newspaper Publishers